Built by a trader who wanted to read the tape, not just stare at it.
FX Patrol is a tool for discretionary FX swing traders who think in fundamentals first and use technicals for entry timing. It reads market news continuously and writes a structured directional view on every major pair — direction, conviction, the thesis pillars holding it up, and the conditions that would invalidate it. Calibrated against its own track record so you know when to discount its confidence.
The problem this exists to solve
If you trade FX off fundamentals, you have three options. You can pay tens of thousands a year for a sell-side desk's strategist notes. You can read twelve news feeds yourself and try to net the noise into a view by hand. Or you can stare at a sentiment number from a website that won't tell you why it picked that direction.
I wanted a fourth option — a structured, opinionated bias on every pair I watch, re-scored every time something material lands, with the reasoning visible. I couldn't find it. So I built it.
What a "bias" means here
A bias is not a trade signal. It is a fundamental compass — which side of the market the news set says you're playing. It has four parts:
- Direction — long, short, or neutral.
- Conviction — 0.00 to 1.00. Anchored to the engine's own historical hit rate at that level, so a 0.80 reading tells you both how confident the engine is AND how often that confidence has been right.
- Thesis pillars — the 3–5 specific drivers (rates, growth, geopolitics, positioning) holding the bias up. Each one cites the headline that supports it.
- Kill switches — observable events (not price levels) that would flip or invalidate the thesis. If one trips, conviction collapses and you see a warning on the card.
What I care about
- Honesty over hype. The dashboard's own hit rate, Brier score, and per-pair edge are all visible on the Track Record page. Every miss is in the open. If you can't see the misses, you can't trust the wins.
- Reasoning, not vibes. Click "Why?" on any bias and you see the news that drove it, the deltas that updated it, and the pillars that hold the current view together. No black box.
- Discretionary, not algorithmic. This is a thinking aid for traders who already trade. It does not enter, exit, or size positions for you. It tells you the side; you pick the timing.
- Calibrated, not confident. A high conviction number is useless if the engine has been wrong half the time at that level. So every conviction is annotated with its historical hit rate.
Who built it
A discretionary FX swing trader. Solo project. Not VC-backed, not selling a course, not pumping a signal service, not affiliated with any broker. Currently shared with a small group of friends and traders. If you found your way here, someone trusted you with the link.
What it deliberately is NOT
- Not an entry signal. It tells you which side; you decide when. Combine with your own technicals.
- Not a guarantee. Many directional calls will be wrong. The Track Record page shows you exactly how often.
- Not personalised advice. The engine doesn't know your account size, risk tolerance, or open positions. You are responsible for what you do with the information.
- Not omniscient. It can only see what's in the news set. Private flow, broker positioning, sell-side notes, intervention plans — all invisible to it.
Read the full risk disclaimer before you act on anything you see in the app.